Important: This dashboard contains the results of a predictive model that was not built by an epidemiologist.

Note: Click a country name to open a search results page for that country’s COVID-19 news.

Based on data up to: 2021-07-19

Projected need for ICU beds

Countries sorted by current estimated need, split into Growing and Recovering countries by current transmission rate. Only for countries with ICU need higher than 0.1 beds per 100k. More details in Appendix.

Growing countries (transmission rate above 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇹🇳 Tunisia 17.43 8.9% ± 3.2% 15.2 ± 2.8 11.7 ± 3.7 -
🇳🇦 Namibia 12.65 10.1% ± 2.6% 9.7 ± 0.9 6.3 ± 0.9 -
🇨🇴 Colombia 10.20 13.1% ± 0.8% 8.0 ± 0.2 5.6 ± 0.3 -
🇫🇷 France 8.42 noisy data noisy data noisy data 11.6
🇵🇾 Paraguay 7.79 10.5% ± 3.2% 6.0 ± 0.8 4.2 ± 1.0 -
🇧🇼 Botswana 7.53 12.0% ± 2.5% 9.5 ± 1.6 9.8 ± 2.4 -
🇸🇷 Suriname 7.03 6.0% ± 2.7% 5.9 ± 1.4 4.7 ± 2.2 -
🇦🇷 Argentina 6.96 7.5% ± 2.2% 5.7 ± 0.8 4.4 ± 1.3 -
🇧🇷 Brazil 6.16 14.3% ± 5.2% 4.7 ± 0.7 3.3 ± 1.0 -
🇷🇺 Russia 5.42 5.8% ± 0.2% 5.3 ± 0.1 5.1 ± 0.2 8.3
🇿🇦 South Africa 5.25 9.4% ± 2.7% 4.3 ± 0.6 3.2 ± 0.8 -
🇬🇪 Georgia 5.09 7.7% ± 1.9% 5.7 ± 1.1 6.3 ± 2.5 -
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 4.27 5.3% ± 1.5% 3.9 ± 0.7 3.5 ± 1.3 -
🇲🇽 Mexico 4.22 17.0% ± 7.3% 4.4 ± 1.4 noisy data 1.2
🇫🇯 Fiji 4.05 10.3% ± 2.7% 7.3 ± 2.8 noisy data -
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 3.74 7.0% ± 2.4% 4.0 ± 1.0 4.1 ± 1.9 -
🇮🇩 Indonesia 3.74 8.1% ± 1.6% 4.7 ± 0.8 5.8 ± 2.0 2.7
🇨🇺 Cuba 3.30 7.7% ± 0.4% 4.5 ± 0.2 6.4 ± 0.6 -
🇧🇴 Bolivia 3.24 5.9% ± 1.9% 2.5 ± 0.3 1.8 ± 0.5 -
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 3.19 10.0% ± 1.0% 4.3 ± 0.4 5.9 ± 1.2 6.6
🇬🇷 Greece 3.15 6.2% ± 1.6% 3.3 ± 0.6 3.5 ± 1.5 6.0
🇲🇾 Malaysia 3.05 7.9% ± 0.9% 4.0 ± 0.4 5.4 ± 1.1 3.4
🇨🇾 Cyprus 2.95 7.2% ± 0.8% 3.6 ± 0.4 4.6 ± 1.0 -
🇨🇷 Costa Rica 2.93 5.1% ± 1.3% 2.5 ± 0.3 2.0 ± 0.6 -
🇮🇷 Iran 2.76 11.9% ± 2.0% 2.9 ± 0.4 3.1 ± 0.8 4.6
🇪🇸 Spain 2.76 9.4% ± 1.8% 3.6 ± 0.6 4.8 ± 1.8 9.7
🇬🇹 Guatemala 2.54 noisy data 2.3 ± 0.8 noisy data -
🇳🇱 Netherlands 2.45 10.5% ± 0.9% 4.0 ± 0.5 6.8 ± 1.6 6.4
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 2.35 6.9% ± 0.2% 2.1 ± 0.0 1.8 ± 0.1 -
🇧🇸 Bahamas 2.12 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇬🇾 Guyana 2.07 noisy data 1.9 ± 0.7 noisy data -
🇵🇹 Portugal 2.06 7.3% ± 1.6% 2.4 ± 0.4 2.8 ± 1.1 4.2
🇪🇨 Ecuador 1.83 6.9% ± 3.2% 1.5 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇲🇲 Burma 1.83 10.5% ± 1.3% 3.7 ± 0.7 7.3 ± 2.8 -
🇰🇼 Kuwait 1.81 5.8% ± 0.3% 1.6 ± 0.0 1.3 ± 0.1 -
🇵🇦 Panama 1.79 8.3% ± 1.9% 1.7 ± 0.2 1.5 ± 0.4 -
🇲🇹 Malta 1.63 11.9% ± 1.9% 3.8 ± 1.0 noisy data -
🇧🇩 Bangladesh 1.29 6.2% ± 0.9% 1.4 ± 0.2 1.6 ± 0.4 0.7
🇺🇸 US 1.26 noisy data noisy data noisy data 34.7
🇹🇭 Thailand 1.05 7.5% ± 0.4% 1.4 ± 0.1 2.1 ± 0.2 10.4
🇮🇶 Iraq 1.03 9.9% ± 0.7% 1.1 ± 0.1 1.1 ± 0.1 -
🇰🇭 Cambodia 0.89 6.4% ± 0.6% 1.0 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.2 -
🇵🇭 Philippines 0.87 5.7% ± 0.3% 0.9 ± 0.0 0.9 ± 0.1 2.2
🇧🇾 Belarus 0.87 5.7% ± 1.2% 0.9 ± 0.1 1.0 ± 0.3 -
🇯🇴 Jordan 0.83 noisy data 0.7 ± 0.2 noisy data -
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 0.82 6.4% ± 1.7% 0.9 ± 0.2 0.9 ± 0.4 24.8
🇺🇦 Ukraine 0.82 5.2% ± 1.2% 0.7 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 -
🇷🇼 Rwanda 0.81 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇩🇰 Denmark 0.80 7.0% ± 1.3% 1.0 ± 0.2 1.2 ± 0.4 6.7
🇹🇷 Turkey 0.78 8.3% ± 0.2% 0.9 ± 0.0 1.0 ± 0.1 47.1
🇧🇦 Bosnia 0.74 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇧🇪 Belgium 0.73 7.1% ± 0.4% 0.8 ± 0.0 0.8 ± 0.1 15.9
🇮🇪 Ireland 0.70 9.6% ± 1.1% 1.0 ± 0.1 1.6 ± 0.4 6.5
🇧🇬 Bulgaria 0.69 6.9% ± 2.7% 0.7 ± 0.2 noisy data -
🇭🇷 Croatia 0.68 6.2% ± 2.7% 0.7 ± 0.2 noisy data -
🇱🇾 Libya 0.61 6.6% ± 1.3% 0.6 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 -
🇮🇹 Italy 0.57 9.7% ± 1.5% 0.8 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.4 12.5
🇷🇴 Romania 0.55 9.0% ± 1.4% 0.7 ± 0.1 1.0 ± 0.3 -
Eswatini 0.47 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 0.45 noisy data noisy data noisy data 21.3
🇬🇲 Gambia 0.42 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇩🇿 Algeria 0.42 7.5% ± 0.3% 0.5 ± 0.0 0.8 ± 0.1 -
🇲🇼 Malawi 0.38 15.4% ± 4.7% noisy data noisy data -
🇲🇿 Mozambique 0.37 10.6% ± 2.2% 0.8 ± 0.3 noisy data -
🇲🇦 Morocco 0.36 11.1% ± 3.1% 0.8 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇨🇿 Czechia 0.36 6.5% ± 1.6% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 11.6
🇯🇵 Japan 0.32 6.6% ± 1.1% 0.4 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.2 7.3
🇫🇮 Finland 0.31 6.1% ± 2.1% 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data 6.1
🇨🇭 Switzerland 0.30 8.3% ± 3.2% 0.4 ± 0.2 noisy data 11.0
🇪🇪 Estonia 0.30 5.3% ± 1.3% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 14.6
🇲🇪 Montenegro 0.28 6.5% ± 1.4% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.1 -
🇱🇸 Lesotho 0.27 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇷🇸 Serbia 0.27 8.4% ± 1.9% 0.4 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.3 -
🇰🇪 Kenya 0.27 5.8% ± 2.0% 0.3 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇦🇪 UAE 0.27 5.8% ± 1.6% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.1 -
🇮🇱 Israel 0.26 10.3% ± 1.8% 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇩🇪 Germany 0.25 6.7% ± 1.3% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 29.2
🇦🇹 Austria 0.21 7.4% ± 1.6% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 21.8
🇻🇳 Vietnam 0.20 13.4% ± 1.4% 0.7 ± 0.2 3.3 ± 1.6 -
🇧🇿 Belize 0.20 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇵🇰 Pakistan 0.19 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data 1.5
🇸🇳 Senegal 0.18 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇲🇺 Mauritius 0.17 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇰🇷 South Korea 0.12 6.0% ± 0.5% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 10.6
🇲🇷 Mauritania 0.11 noisy data noisy data noisy data -

Recovering countries (transmission rate below 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇺🇾 Uruguay 4.07 1.6% ± 0.6% 2.5 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.2 -
🇴🇲 Oman 3.25 noisy data 1.8 ± 0.3 0.9 ± 0.3 14.6
🇲🇳 Mongolia 2.83 noisy data 2.1 ± 0.4 1.4 ± 0.6 8.8
🇨🇱 Chile 2.50 4.5% ± 1.2% 1.9 ± 0.2 1.3 ± 0.3 -
🇭🇳 Honduras 2.21 noisy data 1.3 ± 0.3 noisy data -
🇿🇲 Zambia 1.79 4.0% ± 1.2% 1.4 ± 0.2 1.0 ± 0.3 -
🇦🇫 Afghanistan 1.39 4.2% ± 0.6% 1.1 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.1 -
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 1.20 4.8% ± 0.1% 1.1 ± 0.0 1.1 ± 0.0 2.3
🇳🇵 Nepal 1.03 4.5% ± 0.9% 0.9 ± 0.1 0.7 ± 0.1 2.8
🇧🇭 Bahrain 1.00 3.4% ± 0.7% 0.6 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.0 -
🇲🇻 Maldives 0.85 4.1% ± 1.8% 0.7 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.2 -
🇦🇲 Armenia 0.75 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde 0.73 4.5% ± 1.7% 0.6 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.2 -
🇯🇲 Jamaica 0.58 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇱🇧 Lebanon 0.54 2.2% ± 0.6% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 -
🇸🇻 El Salvador 0.50 noisy data 0.3 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇻🇪 Venezuela 0.49 4.6% ± 0.3% 0.5 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.0 -
🇱🇻 Latvia 0.46 1.7% ± 0.3% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 9.7
🇮🇳 India 0.46 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data 5.2
🇲🇰 North Macedonia 0.40 0.8% ± 0.3% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 0.37 2.6% ± 0.9% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 -
🇺🇬 Uganda 0.37 4.8% ± 0.9% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 -
🇱🇹 Lithuania 0.35 4.5% ± 1.6% 0.3 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 15.5
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0.35 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data 22.8
🇭🇺 Hungary 0.34 4.9% ± 0.8% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 13.8
🇸🇰 Slovakia 0.32 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 9.2
🇱🇷 Liberia 0.31 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇲🇩 Moldova 0.28 1.6% ± 0.4% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇸🇪 Sweden 0.25 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data 5.8
🇸🇮 Slovenia 0.24 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.1 6.4
🇳🇴 Norway 0.21 4.1% ± 1.0% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 8.0
🇵🇱 Poland 0.19 5.0% ± 1.1% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 6.9
🇨🇦 Canada 0.14 4.1% ± 1.4% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 13.5
🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza 0.13 1.2% ± 0.2% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 -
🇰🇲 Comoros 0.13 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇹🇼 Taiwan* 0.12 1.6% ± 0.5% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 -
🇪🇬 Egypt 0.11 1.3% ± 0.1% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 -

Projected Affected Population percentages

Top 20 countries with most estimated recent cases. Sorted by number of estimated recent cases during the last 5 days. More details in Appendix.

Estimated
recent cases
during
last 5 days		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 14 days		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 30 days		 Current
testing
bias
🇮🇩 Indonesia 2,622,873 14.8% 8.1% ± 1.6% 18.6% ± 1.1% 24.2% ± 3.6% 14.2
🇧🇷 Brazil 936,197 78.5% 14.3% ± 5.2% 79.8% ± 0.6% 81.0% ± 1.3% 7.2
🇮🇳 India 861,330 12.8% noisy data 13.0% ± 0.1% 13.1% ± 0.3% 7.3
🇲🇽 Mexico 821,795 67.4% 17.0% ± 7.3% 69.8% ± 1.5% 72.6% ± 3.6% 23.6
🇷🇺 Russia 591,997 16.9% 5.8% ± 0.2% 18.2% ± 0.1% 19.8% ± 0.2% 6.0
🇧🇩 Bangladesh 500,367 5.9% 6.2% ± 0.9% 7.0% ± 0.2% 8.5% ± 0.7% 11.0
🇺🇸 US 493,445 32.7% noisy data 33.2% ± 0.8% 34.3% ± 4.2% 3.2
🇿🇦 South Africa 488,479 62.7% 9.4% ± 2.7% 65.3% ± 1.0% 67.6% ± 2.0% 10.0
🇮🇷 Iran 486,875 52.9% 11.9% ± 2.0% 54.9% ± 0.5% 57.4% ± 1.3% 5.8
🇨🇴 Colombia 481,112 74.9% 13.1% ± 0.8% 77.5% ± 0.2% 79.6% ± 0.4% 6.6
🇲🇲 Burma 429,626 5.7% 10.5% ± 1.3% 9.4% ± 0.8% 17.9% ± 4.2% 19.4
🇲🇾 Malaysia 237,973 8.2% 7.9% ± 0.9% 11.2% ± 0.5% 15.9% ± 1.7% 5.1
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 229,555 17.8% 7.0% ± 2.4% 23.8% ± 2.9% 31.0% ± 7.3% 33.5
🇦🇷 Argentina 228,779 52.2% 7.5% ± 2.2% 53.8% ± 0.6% 55.3% ± 1.4% 4.7
🇵🇭 Philippines 227,086 12.8% 5.7% ± 0.3% 13.5% ± 0.1% 14.3% ± 0.1% 10.0
🇹🇳 Tunisia 213,935 53.0% 8.9% ± 3.2% 59.1% ± 2.7% 64.4% ± 5.4% 9.6
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 194,651 26.9% 10.0% ± 1.0% 28.0% ± 0.2% 29.8% ± 0.6% 1.0
🇦🇫 Afghanistan 185,555 15.7% 4.2% ± 0.6% 17.2% ± 0.3% 18.6% ± 0.6% 51.0
🇮🇶 Iraq 163,498 46.0% 9.9% ± 0.7% 47.3% ± 0.1% 49.0% ± 0.4% 4.7
🇵🇪 Peru 142,681 nan% inf% ± nan% nan% ± nan% nan% ± nan% 22.6

For world maps with all projections: world maps notebook

Interactive plot of Model predictions

Tip: Choose a country from the drop-down menu to see the calculations used in the tables above and the dynamics of the model.
Note: For stacked plots of all countries see world plots notebook